Clinton Bests Obama in Money, Polls

With third quarter fundraising numbers released -- by at least some of the campaigns -- New York Senator Hillary Clinton has opened up an advantage in fundraising over Senator Barack Obama, though the Illinois Democrat continues to perform well, even if his poll numbers seem to have stalled everywhere except Iowa. Despite the summer doldrums -- the New York Times this morning said "well-heeled donors get out of their offices and off the fund-raising circuit to go on vacations and to their summer homes" -- Obama raised more than $20 million, bringing his 2007 take to nearly $80 million. He has raised money from 352,000 donors.

New York Senator Hillary Clinton, who in the first two quarters trailed Obama by a small margin, raised $27 million, according to a blog post today by Patrick Healy in the New York Times. Healy reports that Clinton has raised about $60 million for use in the primaries (money has to be identified either as primary or general election money, and Clinton has raised a higher percentage of her total for the general than Obama). Adding an additional $10 million from her 2006 Senate campaign fund, Clinton has amassed about $70 million for the primary season, versus $75 million for Obama, Healy reported.

The other Dems trailed the frontrunners significantly -- former North Carolina Senator John Edwards (who now say he will take public matching funds, restricting his primary spending flexibility state-by-state) raising $7 million and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, about $5.2 million.

The Republicans, as they have all year, trailed the Democrats by a significant spread. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney raised about $10 million, former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson, more than $8 million (but remember -- this is his premier quarter raising money, so he did not have the launch splash that others enjoyed), and Arizona Senator John McCain, just over $5 million.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has not disclosed his numbers, saying only he would "do as well as the other Republicans -- maybe we will do better than some"... whatever the heck that means.

Clinton, however, is strengthening her polling numbers, both nationwide and in New Hampshire, though Obama appears to have a slight lead right now in Iowa.



First the numbers in Iowa. In an October 1 story, the Boston Globe reported:

The survey -- conducted for Newsweek magazine and released in the current issue of the magazine that has Romney on the cover -- has Romney with the support of 24 percent of likely GOP caucus-goers, compared to 16 percent for Fred Thompson, 13 percent for Rudy Giuliani, 12 percent for Mike Huckabee, and 9 percent for John McCain.

Obama has 28 percent among likely Democratic caucus-goers, ahead of 24 percent for Hillary Clinton, 22 percent for John
Edwards, and 10 percent for Bill Richardson.

Besides the horserace numbers, the poll includes some other interesting findings:

• Two-thirds of both Democrats and Republicans said they think America is ready to elect an African-American president.
• 72 percent of Republicans and 63 percent of Democrats said they themselves would be willing to vote for a Mormon, but only 45 percent of Republicans and 33 percent of Democrats said they think America is ready to elect a Mormon as president.
• 78 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers had a favorable opinion of Romney, 77 percent said that he is able to get things done, 49 percent said he can bring needed change, and only 25 percent said that he flip-flops his positions too much on important issues.
• 77 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers said they had a favorable opinion of Clinton, 79 percent said it would be a good thing if former President Clinton were back in the White House, and a majority said that her position on the Iraq war does not affect their support.
  

The poll of 1,215 registered voters was conducted on Sept. 26 and 27 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. The margin of error for likely Democratic voters is plus or minus 7 percentage points and for likely Republican voters is plus or minus 9 percentage points.

And in New Hampshire, a press release from Newsmax/ Zogby reports that though Clinton leads overall by a comfortable margin, Obama has the edge among voters under 30. Clinton, however, leads in the critical category of independents who are allowed by state law to vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary:

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has extended her lead in the race for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination in New Hampshire, capturing 38% support as the contest enters the crucial fall phase, a new NewsMax/Zogby International telephone poll shows.

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has slipped slightly but retains a strong grasp on second place with 23% support, while former senator John Edwards of North Carolina faded to 12%, the survey shows. Ten percent said they remain unsure about who to support in the race.

The telephone survey included 505 voters likely to participate in the New Hampshire Democratic primary election. It was conducted Sept. 26–28, 2007, and carries a margin of error of +/– 4.5 percentage points.

Clinton jumped a full 10% since Zogby polling this spring, solidifying an edge she has built nationally heading into the fall campaign. She enjoys a dominant 44% to 22% lead over Obama among women, and holds a healthy 31% to 22% lead over him among men. Edwards is mired in third place among women with 11% support, and is fourth behind New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson among men. Richardson wins support from 14% among men, while Edwards gets backing from just 13%.

Democrats in New Hampshire – 2007	Sept. 28	May 16	Apr. 3	Feb. 7	Jan. 17
Clinton	38%	28%	29%	27%	19%
Obama	23%	26%	23%	23%	23%
Edwards	12%	15%	23%	13%	19%
Richardson	8%	10%	2%	3%	1%
Kucinich	3%	4%	1%	1%	1%
Biden	2%	1%	2%	2%	3%
Dodd	2%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%
Gravel	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Someone else	4%	-	-	-	-
Not sure	10%	15%	17%	23%	22%

Obama leads among likely Democratic primary voters under age 30 with 38%, compared to 30% for Clinton. The two are closely matched among those age 30–49, but Clinton holds a strong advantage among those over 50. Among those age 50–64, she holds a 45% to 18% edge over Obama, with Edwards at 17%, and she wins among those age 65 and older, 45% to 14% for Obama. Edwards wins just 10% among those age 65 and older, typically one of the strongest voting demographics in primary elections.

Clinton has solidified her leads across the ideological spectrum in the Democratic Party, leading Obama by a 33% to 21% edge among progressives, 42% to 23% among liberals, and 36% to 25% among moderates. Edwards finishes a distant third in all of those categories.

Among independent voters who said they plan to participate in the Democratic primary election in New Hampshire, Clinton also leads, winning 33% support, compared to 25% for Obama and 13% for Edwards. Richardson wins 8% support among independents.

Among Democrats, Clinton’s lead is larger – she wins support from 41%, compared to 21% for Obama and 11% for Edwards.

As news begins to break on how the candidates did at fund–raising for the third quarter of the year, the latest NewsMax/Zogby survey shows that Hillary Clinton’s fund–raising connection to indicted contribution bundler Norman Hsu has had little effect on her overall standing. Hsu raised more than $850,000 for the Clinton campaign and is now under investigation for allegedly violating federal campaign finance laws, but just 11% said that information makes them less likely to support Ms. Clinton. Further, 11% said that association with Hsu makes them more likely to support her. The vast majority – 78% – said it makes no difference to them in their support of a candidate for President.

Moderates and younger voters appeared to be slightly more concerned about the matter than others, but only marginally so.

For a complete methodological statement on this survey, visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1215

Click the link below to view the full news release:
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1364

As Iowa Supreme Court Steps In, What Next?

Appeared in Gay City News, September 6-12, 2007

For roughly 18 hours last week in Des Moines, gay and lesbian couples felt the pulse of freedom that their New York City counterparts had yearned for in the spring of 2005, when Manhattan Supreme Court Justice Doris Ling-Cohan ruled in favor of same-sex plaintiffs here in a marriage equality lawsuit at the district court level.

Polk County, Iowa, Judge Robert B. Hanson, like Ling-Cohan, ruled for six plaintiff couples, and when he announced his decision on August 30 he issued no delay pending appeal. Ling-Cohan stayed the effect of her ruling for 30 days, and when Mayor Michael Bloomberg promptly appealed, that delay became permanent until the matter was resolved at New York's highest c

In Des Moines, the County Recorder and Registrar was under order to begin issuing marriage license applications immediately. As Polk County filed a motion to stay Hanson's ruling pending appeal to the Iowa Supreme Court, it became a race between gay and lesbian couples rushing for licenses and the timing of a judicial response to the motion.

Polk County officials assumed they had a three-business-day leg up, in light of the waiting period mandated in law before couples with a license can wed. But they did not count on the resourcefulness of Sean Fritz, 24, and his 21-year-old boyfriend Tim McQuillan, both students at Iowa State University in Ames, who had met via Facebook.com.

According to the Des Moines Register, Fritz moved fast Thursday afternoon once he learned of Hanson's ruling. After calling McQuillan's mother to ask for her son's hand, he dashed over to the campus computer lab and proposed to Tim, who had not yet learned of the legal victory.

Arriving the next morning at the Polk County offices before 8 a.m., the couple got their license and shrewdly spent an extra $5 on a waiver form that would free them from waiting three days. But, they still needed a judge's signature, so they next headed to the County Courthouse, where another district judge, Scott Rosenberg, agreed to their request.

The couple's next several hours, according to the Register, were spent hotfooting around Des Moines looking for a member of the clergy to officiate at their wedding. Though neither man is Jewish, they first tried a synagogue, but upon learning the rabbi was out, they quickly settled on a Unitarian minister, who married them in his back yard. With TV cameras in tow by this time, Fritz and McQuillan headed back to the County building and filed their marriage certificate at around 10:45.

Roughly 45 minutes later, Hanson acceded to the Polk County motion to stay his own ruling. Twenty-six other gay and lesbian couples applied for marriage licenses in a window that last less than a full day, but none will have the chance to wed legally at least until the issue is resolved in the state Supreme Court, a process that could last until 2009.

Thousands of weddings performed in San Francisco after Mayor Gavin Newsom gave the go-ahead in 2004 were later overturned by the California Supreme Court, and Bloomberg, in appealing Ling-Cohan's ruling, said high court resolution of the issue in New York State was necessary before any weddings took place to avoid the same "confusion" from taking place here.

For now, Fritz and McQuillan have a legally registered marriage, and when queried this week on the status of their union, Lambda Legal, which represented the plaintiff couples in Iowa, responded flatly, via e-mail, "Sean and Tim are married. Period."

For all the other same-sex couples who wish to get married in Iowa, the near-term future is less certain. Polk County's appeal of Hanson's August 30 decision goes to the Iowa Supreme Court, which can either hear arguments itself, or first assign the case to an intermediate level appellate court. In New York and New Jersey, marriage cases went through all three levels of state courts. In contrast, in Massachusetts, where the lawsuit failed at the district level, the appeal went immediately to the Supreme Judicial Court, where gay marriage won.

The other great unknown involves the politics of the issue.

Hanson, in ruling for the plaintiffs, overturned a 1998 Defense of Marriage statute passed in the wake of the 1996 federal DOMA. The issue of same-sex marriage has never been the subject of a constitutional amendment fight in that state.

As in Massachusetts, where the effort to overturn the 2004 marriage victory through amendment has been rebuffed several times, the Iowa Constitution can only be amended if the State Legislature approves a ballot question by a simple majority in each of two successive biennial sessions. So, even if an amendment got legislative approval in the session that runs through the end of 2008, it would need to be approved again in the 2009-2010 session and would only reach voters in November 2010, presumably after the state Supreme Court rules.

The Legislature's mood is uncertain.

The Democrats hold narrow majorities in both the Senate and House, and the governor, Chet Culver, is also a Democrat. Not surprisingly, it was the Republicans who moved to heat up the debate.

"I can't believe this actually happened in Iowa," said the House minority leader, Chris Rants, a Sioux City Republican, as he vowed to press the case to protect the state DOMA in the Iowa Constitution. "What it means is that one person has decided they know better than the whole Legislature."

Meanwhile Culver acted quickly to douse any immediate wildfire, pledging "to follow this matter closely as it continues through the judicial system before determining whether any additional legislative actions are appropriate or necessary." Des Moines Democrat Kevin McCar­thy, the House majority leader, urged his fellow legislators to "take a deep breath and calm down."

The Democrats are the ones in the trickier political spot. While Culver last week reiterated his view that marriage is between a man and a woman, the state party itself is on the record in favor of marriage equality. So Democrats are likely to use their control of the Legislature to block any vote from happening at all, seeing it as a no-win proposition for themselves.

One Iowa, the state's marriage equality advocacy group, however, was unwilling to handi­­cap the landscape in the state capital so soon after the Hanson ruling. As the group works to gauge the current temperature, it continues its efforts with Lambda on a series of community briefings designed to educate members of the LGBT community on the marriage drive while drawing media attention across the state.

That strategy proved effective in mobilizing the community and winning editorial support when Lambda employed it in advance of last year's New Jersey Supreme Court ruling. According to Steven Goldstein, who heads up Garden State Equality, that groundwork was invaluable in keeping the push for full civil marriage alive in the wake of the Legislature's decision to opt for only civil unions when faced with a high court mandate last fall.

In the next week alone, One Iowa and Lambda plan meetings in Des Moines, Sioux City, and Iowa City.

©GayCityNews 2007