Monday, September 10, 2007

Fred Hurts Rudy




















A new CBS News/ New York Times poll holds bad news for Republican front-runner Rudy Giuliani, the former New York mayor. In the past month, his support among GOP primary voters has fallen from 38 percent to 27, while numbers for Fred Thompson, an ex-Tennessee senator and thoroughly unconvincing Manhattan DA on "Law and Order" virtually untested on the campaign trail or in anything approaching a policy platform, rose from 18 to 22. John McCain has regained some ground, rising six points to 18 percent (ALERT: expect a spate of McCain on the mend stories, first because of his showing in the New Hampshire debate last week and second because that's all that can be written about the Arizona senator at this point). Mitt Romney, the former one-term governor of Massachusetts, is steady at 14 percent, despite persistent reports that he has comfortable leads in Iowa and New Hampshire.

One finding the poll touts is that respondents don't look at being a big city mayor as providing the same level of experience that serving as a governor or US senator does. Likely GOP primary voters also appear fuzzy on Rudy's views on abortion, his record on crime, and his relations with New York's people of color communities (though that last measure, if better known, seems doubtful to hurt Giuliani in a big way in the primaries). With uncharacteristic pragmatism, respondents by a two to one margin said they would support a
less conservative candidate if that helped the Republicans hold onto the White House, a feeling Rudy is likely to do his best to exploit.

Hillary Rodham Clinton's nearly 20-point lead over Illinois Senator Barack Obama (and more versus North Carolina's John Edwards) remained steady from last month. What factors, if any, might shake up the Democratic contest remain unclear.

Poll: Giuliani Tumbles; GOP Race Tightens

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